Every January, a predictable pattern repeats across UK warehouses, post rooms, and courier networks: millions of parcels start moving in the wrong direction. The festive season may be over, but for eCommerce brands and their logistics teams, the real test is just beginning.
The industry calls it Returnuary, and in 2026, the numbers are bigger than ever. An estimated £1.55 billion worth of goods bought during November and December 2025 headed back to sellers in the opening weeks of the year. That figure is up from £1.51 billion the previous year, driven by rising online sales values and deeply ingrained consumer habits like bracketing and wardrobing.
This article breaks down the key stats, trends, and figures behind Returnuary 2026, along with what they mean for eCommerce brands trying to protect their margins, keep customers happy, and reduce the environmental cost of reverse logistics.
What Is Returnuary?
Returnuary is the name the retail and logistics industry uses for the January returns surge that follows the Christmas and Black Friday shopping period. It has moved from a niche term used in trade publications to a widely recognised milestone in the eCommerce calendar.
The peak typically lands in the first full working week of the year, when consumers who received unwanted gifts, ordered the wrong size, or simply changed their minds begin processing returns in bulk. The single busiest day is known as “Takeback Tuesday”, the first full working Tuesday of January, when an estimated half a million parcels were returned on 5 January 2026 alone.
For eCommerce brands, Returnuary is not just a logistical headache. It is a direct hit to cash flow, warehouse capacity, and customer satisfaction scores at a time when many businesses are already under pressure from post-peak slowdowns and tighter consumer spending.
Returnuary 2026: The Key Numbers
A handful of headline figures defines the scale of returns in January 2026. Here is what the data shows.
| Metric | Figure |
| Total estimated return value | £1.55 billion |
| Year-on-year increase (vs. Returnuary 2025) | ~3% (up from £1.51bn) |
| Peak day volume (Takeback Tuesday, 5 Jan) | ~500,000 parcels |
| Estimated gifts returned in early January | 52 million |
| Average value per returned gift | £57 |
| Royal Mail weekly volume spike | +25% |
| UK eCommerce return rate (Jan–Aug 2025 baseline) | 17.5% |
The £1.55 billion figure covers goods purchased in the November to December 2025 window and returned in the first few weeks of January 2026. The 3% year-on-year rise reflects both higher average order values during the festive period and the continued normalisation of returns as part of the online shopping cycle.
Takeback Tuesday acts as the logistical peak of the post-holiday period. Royal Mail data shows that return volumes during this specific week run approximately 25% above normal levels, putting significant strain on courier networks and fulfilment centres alike.
For comparison, Returnuary 2025 saw £1.51 billion in returned goods, with Royal Mail reporting volumes 52% above typical December days and a 6.8% surge on 2 January compared to the same day in 2024. The trend line is consistent: each year, volumes edge higher.
Why Return Volumes Are Still Rising
The rising tide of eCommerce returns is not driven by a single factor. Several behavioural trends, each reinforced by the convenience of online shopping, are compounding the problem.
Bracketing
An estimated 36% of UK consumers now buy multiple versions of the same item, typically different sizes or colours, with the intention of returning most of them. Size and fit issues remain the single biggest driver, accounting for 61% of all consumer returns. For fashion brands in particular, bracketing has become a default shopping behaviour rather than an occasional convenience.
Wardrobing
Nearly one in three UK shoppers admit to wearing an item once and then returning it. This practice is most common among younger demographics and is heavily influenced by social media, where the pressure to appear in new outfits for content creation drives a cycle of buy, photograph, return.
Generational Differences
Gen Z shoppers are the most likely to view returns as a routine part of the buying process. Research shows 23% identify as “slow returners” (taking their time to send items back) and 10% as “serial returners” (consistently returning the majority of what they buy). This cohort is less likely to factor in the environmental or operational cost of their return behaviour.
Product Description Gaps
“Significantly Not As Described” (SNAD) claims accounted for 63% of all returns initiated in January 2026. While some of these are legitimate, the figure highlights a persistent gap between what customers expect based on product listings and what they receive. Poor imagery, inconsistent sizing guides, and vague descriptions all contribute.
The Cost of Returns for UK eCommerce Brands
Returns are not just an inconvenience. They represent a significant and growing financial burden, particularly for small and mid-sized eCommerce brands where margins are already tight.
- Processing cost per return: The total cost of handling a single return, including reverse logistics, labour, inspection, and potential loss of resale value, can reach up to 66% of the item’s original price for marketplace traders.
- Annual returns cost: UK eCommerce returns collectively cost retailers an estimated £60 billion per year.
- Processing time: The average return spends nearly 10 days in limbo between initiation and being ready for resale. During Returnuary, that delay means stock returned in the first week of January may not be back on the shelf until the third week, by which point winter sales have often ended and markdowns deepen further.
- Refund-heavy culture: In the UK, 78.1% of returned value results in a direct refund rather than an exchange or store credit. For every £100 of returned goods, nearly £80 exits the brand’s revenue entirely. By comparison, Australian retailers retain 45% of returned value through a stronger exchange culture.
- Low exchange adoption: The UK’s exchange adoption rate sits at just 5.8%, the lowest globally. The US manages 17.1% and Australia 13.2%. This represents a significant missed opportunity for brands to retain revenue within their ecosystem.
For growing eCommerce brands handling hundreds or thousands of returns in January, having a structured returns management process is not optional. It is the difference between a short-term cash flow problem and a longer-term margin crisis.
Which Product Categories Are Hardest Hit?
Return rates vary significantly by product type. Fashion and apparel consistently drive the highest volumes, while categories like beauty and electronics see far lower rates due to different purchasing behaviours.
| Product Category | Avg. Return Rate | Key Drivers |
| Fast fashion | 25–35% | Low price point, trend-driven demand, bracketing |
| Luxury apparel | 40–50% | Comparison shopping, high fit expectations |
| Footwear | 15–20% | Brand-specific sizing differences |
| Consumer electronics | 5–10% | Higher pre-purchase research |
| Furniture and homeware | ~8% | High shipping costs create friction |
| Beauty and personal care | 1–5% | Hygiene restrictions, low bracketing potential |
Fashion remains the dominant category for Returnuary volumes, driven by the combination of bracketing behaviour and the inherent difficulty of predicting fit when buying online. Brands selling apparel and footwear need to plan for significantly higher reverse logistics loads during January than businesses in lower-return categories.
Interestingly, some categories are growing while maintaining lower return risk. Underwear saw a 45% growth rate in early 2026, reflecting a shift toward essentials-led spending with more predictable sizing. Beauty grew by 16% and sportswear by 10%, both showing that consumer demand is increasingly driven by utility rather than impulse.
The Environmental Impact of Returnuary
The financial cost of returns is only part of the picture. The environmental cost of eCommerce returns is significant, and new UK legislation is making it harder for retailers to treat reverse logistics as an afterthought.
In the UK, an estimated 5 billion pounds of returned goods end up in landfill every year. Each return generates approximately 30% more carbon emissions than the original outbound delivery, with the “last mile” accounting for roughly half of all return-related emissions. For many items, particularly in fast fashion, it is more cost-effective for a retailer to dispose of a returned item than to inspect, refurbish, and resell it.
Two pieces of legislation are raising the stakes in 2026:
- Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR): By the second half of 2026, the design of a product and its packaging will directly affect its disposal cost. Items rated as difficult to recycle due to mixed materials or heavy adhesives will face escalating fees.
- Plastic Packaging Tax (PPT): The tax rate for plastic packaging without at least 30% recycled content rises to £228.82 per tonne from April 2026. This directly affects packaging choices for both outbound orders and returns.
For eCommerce brands, these changes mean that the cost of unsustainable packaging and wasteful returns processes will increasingly show up on the balance sheet, not just in the brand’s carbon footprint reporting.
How UK Retailers Are Responding
The era of blanket free returns is drawing to a close. Retail Economics data shows that only 24 out of 100 leading UK retailers now offer completely free returns with no fee and free delivery on return. The rest have introduced a range of charges and policy changes designed to reduce abuse without alienating loyal customers.
Return Fees Are Now the Norm
An estimated 66.1% of UK merchants have introduced return fees. While 69% of shoppers still believe free returns should be standard, the data suggests that well-communicated fees are increasingly accepted. 72% of consumers say they are comfortable with certain return restrictions if they are framed as measures to protect the majority of shoppers and ensure fairness.
Behaviour-Based Policies
Some retailers are trialling “fair use” models that differentiate customers based on their return history. Shoppers who keep a defined share of their purchases retain free returns, while those returning more than 70% of items face a fee per return plus a restocking charge. These policies aim to curb the most extreme behaviour without penalising occasional returners.
Exchanges Over Refunds
57% of shoppers considering a return would accept a gift card as a refund, keeping capital within the business. Retailers are increasingly defaulting to exchange or store credit options before offering a cash refund, a simple change that can meaningfully improve revenue retention.
Outsourcing Returns Processing
33% of businesses plan to outsource returns processing in 2026, while 35% of supply chain professionals have made local returns consolidation a top priority. For brands that lack dedicated warehouse space or returns teams, working with a 3PL partner that specialises in reverse logistics can absorb the January peak without creating backlogs or delays.
What eCommerce Brands Can Do Now
Returnuary is not going away. But there are practical steps eCommerce brands can take to reduce return volumes, speed up processing, and protect margins.
- Audit your return data by category and reason code. If 61% of returns are driven by fit and sizing issues, the fix starts with your product listings, not your returns policy.
- Improve product descriptions and sizing guidance. Retailers using AI-powered fit tools and consistent, high-quality imagery are seeing a 5–20% reduction in returns. Even simple improvements to sizing charts and product photography can make a measurable difference.
- Review your returns policy. Consider behaviour-based tiers rather than a blanket approach. Transparency matters: 77% of shoppers check return policies before buying, and clear communication increases conversion rather than reducing it.
- Speed up returns processing. A 10-day processing window in January means returned stock misses the sales window entirely. Faster triage, inspection, and restocking keeps inventory moving and reduces the need for deeper markdowns.
- Prioritise exchanges and store credit. Shifting even a small percentage of returns from refunds to exchanges can have a meaningful impact on revenue retention. The UK’s 5.8% exchange rate has significant room to grow.
- Work with a fulfilment partner that can handle peak return volumes. If your in-house team is stretched during January, outsourcing returns to a specialist 3PL with dedicated reverse logistics capacity can prevent backlogs and protect your customer experience during the busiest returns period of the year.
Ready to take the stress out of January returns? Green Fulfilment’s reverse logistics service handles the peak, so your team doesn’t have to. Get a returns fulfilment quote.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Returnuary?
Returnuary is the industry term for the January returns surge that follows the festive shopping period. It typically peaks in the first full working week of the year, with Takeback Tuesday being the single busiest day for returns in January.
How much are UK eCommerce returns worth in January 2026?
An estimated £1.55 billion worth of goods bought in November and December 2025 were returned in the first weeks of January 2026, up from £1.51 billion the previous year.
What is the UK eCommerce return rate?
The UK eCommerce return rate sits at approximately 17.5%, based on January to August 2025 data. This is notably higher than the US (11%) and Australia (10.9%).
Why do so many eCommerce orders get returned in January?
The main drivers include unwanted gifts, bracketing (buying multiple sizes or colours with the intent to return most of them), size and fit issues (accounting for 61% of returns), and product descriptions that do not match the physical item received.
Are free returns disappearing in the UK?
Increasingly, yes. Only 24 out of 100 leading UK retailers now offer completely free returns. Most have introduced fees, shorter return windows, or behaviour-based policies that charge higher-frequency returners while keeping the process free for the majority of customers.
