Peak season of last year moved 1.29 billion parcels through UK networks: an 11% increase on 2024.
The four-day stretch from Black Friday to Cyber Monday generated £3.8 billion in online spending. Total campaign spending hit £10.2 billion across the wider promotional period.
Those numbers sound like success. Behind them, fulfilment operations faced:
- Staffing crises that broke the accuracy rates
- Returns backlogs worth £1.51 billion
- Carrier surcharges that squeezed margins
- Weather disruptions that shut down regional networks
This article breaks down what worked, what failed, and what UK brands should do differently for peak 2026.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday: The Calendar Has Shifted
Cyber Monday Now Wins
The assumption that Black Friday is the busiest day of peak season no longer holds.
| Day | Share of Weekend Orders | Week-on-Week Increase |
| Black Friday | 30% | +56.6% |
| Cyber Monday | 42% | +35.6% |
UK shoppers deliberately delayed major purchases until the final moment of the promotional window.
The Extended Timeline
The old model of a concentrated 48-hour surge is gone. Peak season 2025 looked like this:
- 60% of UK shoppers started deal searches in October
- The promotional period stretched across 6+ weeks
- Average spend per person reached £430 (up £91 from 2024)
- Electronics dominated, accounting for 48% of consumer budgets
What This Means for Fulfilment
Capacity planning must account for extended timelines, not single spikes.
The brands that handled this well had already adjusted:
- Staffing schedules spread across weeks
- Inventory positioned before October
- Carrier agreements built for sustained volume
The Returns Surge No One Talks About
The December Wave
Returns spiked 80% in the first week of December.
One in three shoppers returned purchases made during BFCM. The bottleneck wasn’t moving parcels: it was processing and reinspecting them quickly enough for resale before Christmas.
Uninspected returns sitting in warehouses remain off the shelves and out of circulation, representing lost sales at the worst possible time.
The January Tsunami
January brought the second, larger wave:
| Metric | Figure |
| Average returns increase (early January) | +59% |
| Royal Mail returns increase (2nd Jan vs typical Dec day) | +52% |
| Surge from Boxing Day to 2nd January | +554.7% |
| Total value of January returns | £1.51 billion |
UK vs US Return Rates
UK brands face a harder challenge than international competitors:
- UK return rate: 17.5%
- US return rate: 11%
This nearly 2x difference requires substantially more reverse logistics capacity.
What Successful 3PLs Did Differently
They ran dual-track operations:
- Forward fulfilment ramping up for Black Friday
- Reverse logistics scaling simultaneously for returns
The cost of poor returns handling: £5.70–£11.50 per item in processing costs alone.
Why Forecasting Models Failed (And What to Do Instead)
The Value vs Volume Trap
Many brands entered December expecting a slowdown based on historical spending patterns. They were wrong.
The paradox:
- Average Christmas spend rose to £461 per adult (up from £449)
- But gift spending fell 7% (£26.7bn vs £28.6bn in 2024)
The explanation:
- Grocery sales hit a record £13.8 billion in four weeks
- Consumers traded up on essentials rather than expanding gift baskets
- They spent more per person but bought fewer discretionary items
The Forecasting Failure
Brands using value-based forecasting expected slower December order volumes. Instead:
- Order fulfilment flow remained high through mid-month
- Unit volumes exceeded 2024 baselines
- Warehouses faced sustained capacity pressure despite “lower” consumer spend
The lesson: forecast units, not pounds.
What Leading 3PLs Do Differently
| Timing | Activity |
| April | Begin peak forecasting |
| Late summer | Align labour with expected volume |
| September | Lock in carrier capacity |
| October | Final inventory positioning |
Results from advanced forecasting:
- Machine learning predicts daily parcel volumes with 95% accuracy
- Unified systems improve on-time delivery by 10–25%
- 34% of supply chain leaders invested in forecasting improvements for 2025
Staffing is the Crisis That Breaks Peak Season
The Real Problem
50% of business leaders cited capacity constraints as their primary concern ahead of Black Friday.
But once peak began, staffing emerged as the critical failure point.
The core issue is that seasonal staff hired in November couldn’t be trained before volumes spiked.
The result:
- Training happened during peak, when errors cost most
- Mislabelled packages increased
- Wrong items shipped
- Orders sat longer than promised
A Timeline That Works
Peak planning should start 3–4 months in advance:
| Month | Action |
| July/August | Begin peak planning |
| August/September | Hire seasonal staff |
| September/October | Complete training |
| November | Peak begins with a prepared team |
Proof that It Works
One leading 3PL achieved these results through early preparation:
- 26,000 orders dispatched in a single day
- 87,000 items processed
- 99.88% real-time inventory accuracy
This is only possible with teams trained before peak pressure begins.
What Top Performers Did
88% of supply chain leaders cross-trained existing workers to increase flexibility.
76% increased compensation to attract and retain employees.
The dual investment in training breadth and competitive wages proved essential for maintaining team stability under pressure.
Carrier Strategies and Why Single Dependence Is a Risk
Peak Surcharges Hit Hard
UPS peak surcharges (28 Sept – 17 Jan):
| Surcharge Type | Cost |
| Additional handling fees | $8.25–$10.80 |
| Large package surcharges | $90.50–$107 |
| Demand surcharges (high-volume customers) | $0.40–$8.75 per package |
| Fuel surcharges (ground services) | ~20.5% |
Maximum fees applied from 23 November to 27 December.
FedEx matched with similar structures effective 29 September to 18 January 2026.
The Hierarchy Problem
For smaller retailers, carrier capacity created a pecking order:
- Large clients got priority access
- Smaller shippers faced delays
- Single-carrier brands had no alternatives
What Multi-Carrier Strategy Looks Like
Brands that succeeded built flexibility:
- Multiple carrier relationships for rerouting options
- Rate shopping between providers
- Backup options for overflow
- Consolidated volume through 3PLs for priority access
Leading 3PLs positioned inventory across multiple warehouse locations to:
- Reduce reliance on express shipping
- Distribute risk across carrier networks
- Avoid single-carrier lock-in
Weather Disruptions and Regional Fragility
Storm Henk and Regional Shutdowns
Weather proved a material operational risk in 2025:
- Storm Henk shut down major transport links for days
- Scottish M8 corridor disruptions affected all Scottish postcodes
- Midlands flooding delayed distribution centre operations
- Port delays at Felixstowe and Southampton rippled through the supply chain
Structural Rural Challenges
Rural regions faced ongoing issues throughout peak:
| Region | Challenge |
| Wales (Powys, Ceredigion) | Carrier service only 3 days per week |
| Northern England (Leeds, Sheffield, Newcastle) | Processing centres below capacity |
| Scottish Highlands | Extended transit times |
International Complications
- UK carrier transit times increased by nearly a third due to international conflicts
- Ships took longer routes to avoid troubled waters
- Brexit customs procedures still added 15–20 minutes processing time per shipment
How to Build Weather Contingencies
The 3PLs that handled weather best added 24–48 hours to promised delivery times in December, giving themselves buffer room when disruptions hit. They used multiple carriers so that delays on one network didn’t halt all deliveries, and built rerouting capabilities through alternative carrier relationships.
Proactive customer communications were prepared in advance, ready to deploy when weather-related delays occurred rather than scrambling to explain problems after the fact.
Delivery Benchmarks Worth Tracking
Industry Standards for 2025
| Metric | Target | Top Performers |
| On-time delivery rate | 95% | 95%+ |
| Order accuracy | 98% | 99.9% |
| First-attempt delivery success (UK) | 93.7% | — |
35% of warehouses still experience 1%+ picking error rates.
The Cost of Errors
A single picking mistake cascades into multiple costs, including returns processing, repacking, customer service time, and replacement shipments. Once these are accounted for, the total profit impact can reach up to 13% loss per error. Failed deliveries carry their own price tag at £11.60 per parcel, making accuracy not just an operational metric but a direct driver of margin.
Customer Behaviour Data
| Finding | Percentage |
| Shoppers unlikely to return after delivery failure | 70% |
| Shoppers who would switch retailers after one broken promise | 61% |
| Cart abandonment due to slow shipping | 22% |
Two-Day Delivery Expectations by Segment
| Customer Type | Expected Two-Day Rate |
| Urban customers | 75% |
| Rural customers | 55% |
| Loyalty programme members | 80% |
Technology and Automation are No Longer Optional
Adoption Rates
Warehouse automation has shifted from an advantage to a requirement. In 2015, just 5% of facilities were automated. By 2025, that figure had reached 25%. Looking ahead, robotic fulfilment is projected to process 67% of UK eCommerce orders by 2028.
What AI Improved in 2025
AI delivered measurable improvements across warehouse operations during peak 2025. Slotting optimisation positioned products for faster picking, while task sequencing ordered work for greater efficiency. Replenishment timing identified optimal windows to reduce pick interruptions, and computer vision enabled error detection that caught mistakes before shipping.
Investment Plans
26% of supply chain leaders planned automation investments heading into peak 2025. Smaller mid-sized companies accelerated adoption as technology costs declined, Robotics-as-a-Service models lowered barriers to entry, and integration tools improved.
The Critical Caveat
Technology alone doesn’t solve peak season. The 3PLs that performed best combined automation with structured training programmes. Automation without workforce development creates staff who don’t understand systems, maintenance backlogs, and brittle processes that break under pressure. Technology is table stakes. It only delivers results when your team knows how to use it.
What Separated Success From Crisis
What Worked
The 3PLs and brands that handled peak 2025 well shared common characteristics across four key areas.
Staffing made the biggest difference. Well-trained teams were ready before November, with cross-trained staff who could move where demand peaked. Competitive wages reduced turnover and kept experienced workers in place when pressure mounted.
Planning started early and focused on the right metrics:
- Forecasting completed months in advance
- Unit-based predictions rather than value-based
- Weather buffers built into delivery promises
Operations prioritised flexibility. Multi-carrier relationships enabled rerouting when problems arose, real-time visibility systems kept everyone informed, and dual-track handling addressed forward fulfilment and returns simultaneously.
Communication was proactive rather than reactive. Delay notifications went out before customers had to chase. Delivery estimates were transparent. Customer service teams were staffed and prepared for volume.
What Failed
The brands that struggled made predictable mistakes, often the mirror image of what worked.
Staffing failures started with late hiring in November, leaving inadequate time for training. Errors compounded during peak as inexperienced staff handled complex orders, and burnout hit experienced team members covering the gaps.
Planning failures stemmed from the wrong assumptions:
- Value-based forecasting that missed actual order volume
- Single-carrier dependency with no backup options
- No contingencies for weather or regional disruptions
Operational failures showed up when volume spiked. Manual processes couldn’t scale, returns capacity proved insufficient, and inventory inaccuracies between channels caused overselling and stockouts.
Communication failures damaged customer relationships. Updates were reactive rather than proactive, customer service teams were overwhelmed, and broken delivery promises eroded trust that took months to rebuild.
Looking Ahead: Preparing for Peak 2026
The Ideal Timeline
| Month | Action |
| April | Begin peak planning and forecasting |
| May–June | Review 2025 lessons, identify gaps |
| July–August | Start hiring seasonal staff |
| September | Secure carrier capacity and relationships |
| October | Complete training, position inventory |
| November | Peak begins with prepared operation |
Key Actions
Forecasting:
- Provide volume forecasts to fulfilment partners by late summer
- Base predictions on units, not historical spend
- Plan for extended 6-week demand, not 48-hour spikes
Staffing:
- Hire seasonal staff by September
- Complete training by October
- Cross-train existing team for flexibility
Carriers:
- Secure capacity agreements by September
- Build multi-carrier relationships
- Plan contingencies for weather and surcharges
Returns:
- Treat as a core operation, not an afterthought
- Staff for the January surge
- Build processing speed for quick restocking
Technology:
- Ensure integration between 3PL systems, eCommerce platforms, and WMS
- Combine automation with workforce training
- Invest in real-time visibility
The companies that execute these strategies will manage peak season as controlled operational scaling.
Those who don’t will manage crises.
FAQs
What is peak season in eCommerce fulfilment?
Peak season refers to the busiest trading period for online retailers, typically running from Black Friday in late November through to January.
In the UK, this includes:
- Black Friday and Cyber Monday
- The Christmas rush
- Boxing Day sales
- The January returns surge
The 2025 peak period saw 1.29 billion parcels move through UK networks.
How do fulfilment centres help brands manage peak season challenges?
Fulfilment centres provide:
- Scalable warehouse space
- Trained staff ready for volume surges
- Technology for real-time visibility
- Multi-carrier options for flexibility
- Fast returns processing
A good 3PL begins planning in spring and provides proactive communication when issues arise.
When should brands start planning for peak season?
April: Leading 3PLs begin peak planning
Late summer: Brands should provide volume forecasts
October: Inventory positioned, seasonal staff trained
November: Peak begins
Waiting until autumn typically results in staffing gaps, carrier capacity problems, and forecasting errors.
Why did Cyber Monday outperform Black Friday in 2025?
UK shoppers increasingly delayed purchases until the final moment of the promotional window.
- Cyber Monday: 42% of BFCM orders
- Black Friday: 30% of BFCM orders
Consumers are becoming more strategic, waiting to see final offers before committing.
What return rates should UK eCommerce brands expect after peak season?
- UK average return rate: 17.5% (nearly double the US rate of 11%)
- January returns increase: 59%+ above normal
- Processing cost per return: £5.70–£11.50
Brands should ensure their fulfilment partner can inspect and restock items quickly. The speed of returns processing directly affects whether returned stock can be resold before demand drops.
